Mario Kart Tour item probability distributions

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The following item probability distributions are used by Mario Kart Tour to determine the probability of obtaining a certain item when an Item Box is opened. Such a probability is coded as a percentage multiplied by two. Text directly derived from in-game data is reported in italics.

General rules

It has been requested that this section be rewritten. Reason: cleaner formulation

During races, the item probability distribution is chosen depending on the current position in the ranking at the moment the Item Box is opened.

Whether or not the Item Box will activate Frenzy mode will be determined first. If the player has Auto Item off, then it is not possible for them to activate Frenzy mode if a Spiny Shell, a Bullet Bill, Lightning, a Mega Mushroom, a Coin Box, Banana Barrels, a Mushroom Cannon or a Bob-omb Cannon are being hold.

The following restrictions hold for the non-Frenzy item distributions:

  • The player can not hold three of the same items.
  • A Mega Mushroom, a Bullet Bill, a Super Horn, Banana Barrels, a Mushroom Cannon, a Coin Box and a Bob-omb Cannon can not appear if the player already holds one.
  • A Spiny Shell can not be obtained before 30 seconds have elapsed and can not appear for 30 seconds after one has been obtained.
  • A Blooper can not appear for 30 seconds after one has been obtained (this does not hold for Bloopers that are part of a Lucky Seven).
  • A Bullet Bill can not be obtained before 35 seconds have elapsed and can not appear for 10 seconds after one has been obtained.
  • Lightning can not be obtained before 20 seconds have elapsed and can not appear for 60 seconds after one has been obtained.

If items can not be obtained according to this restrictions, the corresponding percentages will be set to zero and the percentages of the other items will be scaled up such that the sum of the percentages will be unity.

Regular races

Non-Frenzy

The following tables are for situations where Frenzy mode is not activated. Boosted probabilities from gliders are not included. If the special item has a probability to be obtained, the percentages of the other items will be scaled down such that the sum of the percentages will be unity.

Drivers controlled by players, first item box
Item 1st place 2nd place 3rd place 4th place 5th place 6th place 7th place 8th place
Banana from Mario Kart Tour.
Banana
10 15 35 45 0 0 0 0
Green Shell from Mario Kart Tour.
Green Shell
5 20 20 25 50 35 0 0
Red Shell from Mario Kart Tour.
Red Shell
0 20 5 5 15 10 0 0
Spiny Shell from Mario Kart Tour
Spiny Shell
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Bob-omb from Mario Kart Tour.
Bob-omb
0 0 5 10 10 20 0 0
Mushroom from Mario Kart Tour.
Mushroom
0 5 5 15 25 30 85 95
Mega Mushroom from Mario Kart Tour.
Mega Mushroom
0 0 0 0 0 5 15 5
Bullet Bill from Mario Kart Tour.
Bullet Bill
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Blooper from Mario Kart Tour.
Blooper
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Lightning from Mario Kart Tour.
Lightning
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Super Horn from Mario Kart Tour.
Super Horn
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Coin from Mario Kart Tour.
Coin
85 40 30 0 0 0 0 0
Drivers controlled by players, subsequent item boxes
Item 1st place 2nd place 3rd place 4th place 5th place 6th place 7th place 8th place
Banana from Mario Kart Tour.
Banana
35 12 20 15 0 0 0 0
Green Shell from Mario Kart Tour.
Green Shell
20 15 20 18 8 8 0 0
Red Shell from Mario Kart Tour.
Red Shell
0 48 20 20 25 17 0 0
Spiny Shell from Mario Kart Tour
Spiny Shell
0 0 0 0 5 5 3 0
Bob-omb from Mario Kart Tour.
Bob-omb
1 3 10 15 10 10 0 0
Mushroom from Mario Kart Tour.
Mushroom
5 12 25 29 20 25 30 21
Mega Mushroom from Mario Kart Tour.
Mega Mushroom
0 0 0 0 27 30 40 30
Bullet Bill from Mario Kart Tour.
Bullet Bill
0 0 0 0 0 0 25 40
Blooper from Mario Kart Tour.
Blooper
0 0 0 3 5 5 0 0
Lightning from Mario Kart Tour.
Lightning
0 0 0 0 0 0 2 9
Super Horn from Mario Kart Tour.
Super Horn
4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Coin from Mario Kart Tour.
Coin
35 10 5 0 0 0 0 0
Special Items
Triple Banana from Mario Kart Tour.
Triple Bananas
20 15 35 30 25 0 0 0
Giant Banana from Mario Kart Tour.
Giant Banana
20 15 35 30 25 0 0 0
Triple Green Shell from Mario Kart Tour.
Triple Green Shells
0 30 20 25 35 15 0 0
Bowser Shell from Mario Kart Tour
Bowser's Shell
0 0 15 35 40 30 30 0
Double Bob-omb from Mario Kart Tour.
Double Bob-ombs
0 30 20 25 35 15 0 0
Triple Mushrooms from Mario Kart Tour
Triple Mushrooms
0 0 15 35 40 30 30 0
Fire Flower from Mario Kart Tour
Fire Flower
0 30 20 25 35 15 0 0
Boomerang Flower from Mario Kart Tour.
Boomerang Flower
0 30 20 25 35 15 0 0
Ice Flower from Mario Kart Tour
Ice Flower
0 30 20 25 35 15 0 0
Heart from Mario Kart Tour
Heart
0 0 15 35 40 30 30 0
Yoshi Egg from Mario Kart Tour.
Yoshi's Egg
0 30 20 25 35 15 0 0
A Birdo's Egg from Mario Kart Tour
Birdo's Egg
0 30 20 25 35 15 0 0
Bubble from Mario Kart Tour
Bubble
0 0 15 35 40 30 30 0
Banana Barrels from Mario Kart Tour
Banana Barrels
0 0 15 35 40 30 30 0
Mushroom Cannon from Mario Kart Tour
Mushroom Cannon
0 0 15 35 40 30 30 0
Lucky Seven from Mario Kart Tour
Lucky Seven
0 0 15 35 40 30 30 0
Coin Box from Mario Kart Tour
Coin Box
20 15 35 30 25 0 0 0
Dash Ring from Mario Kart Tour
Dash Ring
0 0 15 35 40 30 30 0
Bob-omb Cannon from Mario Kart Tour
Bob-omb Cannon
0 0 15 35 40 30 30 0
Hammer from Mario Kart Tour.
Hammer
0 30 20 25 35 15 0 0

Frenzy

The following tables are for situations where Frenzy mode is activated. Boosted probabilities from driver skill levels or gliders are not included. If the special item has a probability to be obtained, the percentages of the other items will be scaled down such that the sum of the percentages will be unity.

Drivers controlled by players, 1st lap/section
Item 1st place 2nd place 3rd place 4th place 5th place 6th place 7th place 8th place
Activating Frenzy 5 6 7 9 13 15 18 22
Regular Items
Banana from Mario Kart Tour.
Banana
30 25 35 15 5 0 0 0
Green Shell from Mario Kart Tour.
Green Shell
10 30 25 30 5 8 0 0
Red Shell from Mario Kart Tour.
Red Shell
0 15 10 10 10 22 27 0
Spiny Shell from Mario Kart Tour
Spiny Shell
0 0 0 0 5 5 6 0
Bob-omb from Mario Kart Tour.
Bob-omb
0 10 25 25 30 15 0 0
Mushroom from Mario Kart Tour.
Mushroom
0 0 5 5 22 20 35 40
Mega Mushroom from Mario Kart Tour.
Mega Mushroom
0 0 0 0 5 20 20 40
Bullet Bill from Mario Kart Tour.
Bullet Bill
0 0 0 0 0 0 6 10
Blooper from Mario Kart Tour.
Blooper
0 0 0 15 18 18 0 0
Lightning from Mario Kart Tour.
Lightning
0 0 0 0 0 0 6 10
Super Horn from Mario Kart Tour.
Super Horn
10 10 0 0 0 0 0 0
Coin from Mario Kart Tour.
Coin
50 10 0 0 0 0 0 0
Special Items
Triple Banana from Mario Kart Tour.
Triple Bananas
20 20 33.333 33.333 33.333 0 0 0
Giant Banana from Mario Kart Tour.
Giant Banana
20 20 33.333 33.333 33.333 0 0 0
Triple Green Shell from Mario Kart Tour.
Triple Green Shells
0 20 33.333 33.333 33.333 20 0 0
Bowser Shell from Mario Kart Tour
Bowser's Shell
0 0 20 33.333 33.333 33.333 33.333 0
Double Bob-omb from Mario Kart Tour.
Double Bob-ombs
0 20 33.333 33.333 33.333 20 0 0
Triple Mushrooms from Mario Kart Tour
Triple Mushrooms
0 0 20 33.333 33.333 33.333 33.333 0
Fire Flower from Mario Kart Tour
Fire Flower
0 20 33.333 33.333 33.333 20 0 0
Boomerang Flower from Mario Kart Tour.
Boomerang Flower
0 20 33.333 33.333 33.333 20 0 0
Ice Flower from Mario Kart Tour
Ice Flower
0 20 33.333 33.333 33.333 20 0 0
Heart from Mario Kart Tour
Heart
0 0 20 33.333 33.333 33.333 33.333 0
Yoshi Egg from Mario Kart Tour.
Yoshi's Egg
0 20 33.333 33.333 33.333 20 0 0
A Birdo's Egg from Mario Kart Tour
Birdo's Egg
0 20 33.333 33.333 33.333 20 0 0
Bubble from Mario Kart Tour
Bubble
0 0 20 33.333 33.333 33.333 33.333 0
Banana Barrels from Mario Kart Tour
Banana Barrels
0 0 20 33.333 33.333 33.333 33.333 0
Mushroom Cannon from Mario Kart Tour
Mushroom Cannon
0 0 20 33.333 33.333 33.333 33.333 0
Lucky Seven from Mario Kart Tour
Lucky Seven
0 0 20 33.333 33.333 33.333 33.333 0
Coin Box from Mario Kart Tour
Coin Box
20 20 33.333 33.333 33.333 33.333 0 0
Dash Ring from Mario Kart Tour
Dash Ring
0 0 20 33.333 33.333 33.333 33.333 0
Bob-omb Cannon from Mario Kart Tour
Bob-omb Cannon
0 0 20 33.333 33.333 33.333 33.333 0
Hammer from Mario Kart Tour.
Hammer
0 20 33.333 33.333 33.333 20 0 0
Drivers controlled by players, 2nd lap/section or 3rd section
Item 1st place 2nd place 3rd place 4th place 5th place 6th place 7th place 8th place
Activating Frenzy 6 7 11 12 18 22 29 41
Regular Items
Banana from Mario Kart Tour.
Banana
30 25 35 15 5 0 0 0
Green Shell from Mario Kart Tour.
Green Shell
10 30 25 30 5 8 0 0
Red Shell from Mario Kart Tour.
Red Shell
0 15 10 10 10 22 27 0
Spiny Shell from Mario Kart Tour
Spiny Shell
0 0 0 0 5 5 6 0
Bob-omb from Mario Kart Tour.
Bob-omb
0 10 25 25 30 15 0 0
Mushroom from Mario Kart Tour.
Mushroom
0 0 5 5 22 20 35 40
Mega Mushroom from Mario Kart Tour.
Mega Mushroom
0 0 0 0 5 20 20 40
Bullet Bill from Mario Kart Tour.
Bullet Bill
0 0 0 0 0 0 6 10
Blooper from Mario Kart Tour.
Blooper
0 0 0 15 18 18 0 0
Lightning from Mario Kart Tour.
Lightning
0 0 0 0 0 0 6 10
Super Horn from Mario Kart Tour.
Super Horn
10 10 0 0 0 0 0 0
Coin from Mario Kart Tour.
Coin
50 10 0 0 0 0 0 0
Special Items
Triple Banana from Mario Kart Tour.
Triple Bananas
20 33.333 50 50 50 0 0 0
Giant Banana from Mario Kart Tour.
Giant Banana
20 33.333 50 50 50 0 0 0
Triple Green Shell from Mario Kart Tour.
Triple Green Shells
0 33.333 50 50 50 33.333 0 0
Bowser Shell from Mario Kart Tour
Bowser's Shell
0 0 33.333 50 50 50 50 0
Double Bob-omb from Mario Kart Tour.
Double Bob-ombs
0 33.333 50 50 50 33.333 0 0
Triple Mushrooms from Mario Kart Tour
Triple Mushrooms
0 0 33.333 50 50 50 50 0
Fire Flower from Mario Kart Tour
Fire Flower
0 33.333 50 50 50 33.333 0 0
Boomerang Flower from Mario Kart Tour.
Boomerang Flower
0 33.333 50 50 50 33.333 0 0
Ice Flower from Mario Kart Tour
Ice Flower
0 33.333 50 50 50 33.333 0 0
Heart from Mario Kart Tour
Heart
0 0 33.333 50 50 50 50 0
Yoshi Egg from Mario Kart Tour.
Yoshi's Egg
0 33.333 50 50 50 33.333 0 0
A Birdo's Egg from Mario Kart Tour
Birdo's Egg
0 33.333 50 50 50 33.333 0 0
Bubble from Mario Kart Tour
Bubble
0 0 33.333 50 50 50 50 0
Banana Barrels from Mario Kart Tour
Banana Barrels
0 0 33.333 50 50 50 50 0
Mushroom Cannon from Mario Kart Tour
Mushroom Cannon
0 0 33.333 50 50 50 50 0
Lucky Seven from Mario Kart Tour
Lucky Seven
0 0 33.333 50 50 50 50 0
Coin Box from Mario Kart Tour
Coin Box
20 33.333 50 50 50 50 50 0
Dash Ring from Mario Kart Tour
Dash Ring
0 0 33.333 50 50 50 50 0
Bob-omb Cannon from Mario Kart Tour
Bob-omb Cannon
0 0 33.333 50 50 50 50 0
Hammer from Mario Kart Tour.
Hammer
0 33.333 50 50 50 33.333 0 0

See also