Mario Kart Tour item probability distributions
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The following item probability distributions are used by Mario Kart Tour to determine the probability of obtaining a certain item when an Item Box is opened. Such a probability is coded as a percentage multiplied by two. Text directly derived from in-game data is reported in italics.
General rules
It has been requested that this section be rewritten. Reason: cleaner formulation
During races, the item probability distribution is chosen depending on the current position in the ranking at the moment the Item Box is opened.
Whether or not the Item Box will activate Frenzy mode will be determined first. If the player has Auto Item off, then it is not possible for them to activate Frenzy mode if a Blue Shell, a Bullet Bill, Lightning, a Mega Mushroom, a Bob-omb Cannon, Banana Barrels, a Mushroom Cannon or a Coin Box are being hold.
The following restrictions hold for the non-Frenzy item distribitions:
- The player can not hold three of the same items.
- A Bullet Bill, a Super Horn, a Mega Mushroom, a Bob-omb Cannon, Banana Barrels, a Mushroom Cannon and a Coin Box can not appear if the player already holds one.
- A Blue Shell can not be obtained before 30 seconds have elapsed and can not appear for 30 seconds after one has been obtained.
- A Blooper can not appear for 30 seconds after one has been obtained.
- A Bullet Bill can not be obtained before 35 seconds have elapsed and can not appear for 10 seconds after one has been obtained.
- Lightning can not be obtained before 20 seconds have elapsed and can not appear for 60 seconds after one has been obtained.
If items can not be obtained according to this restrictions, the corresponding percentages will be set to zero and the percentages of the other items will be scaled up such that the sum of the percentages will be unity.
Regular races
Non-Frenzy
The following tables are for situations where Frenzy mode is not activated. Boosted probabilities from gliders are not included. If the special item has a probability to be obtained, the percentages of the other items will be scaled down such that the sum of the percentages will be unity.
Drivers controlled by players, first item box | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Item | 1st place | 2nd place | 3rd place | 4th place | 5th place | 6th place | 7th place | 8th place |
![]() Banana |
10 | 15 | 35 | 45 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
![]() Green Shell |
5 | 20 | 20 | 25 | 50 | 35 | 0 | 0 |
![]() Red Shell |
0 | 20 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 10 | 0 | 0 |
![]() Spiny Shell |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
![]() Bob-omb |
0 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 10 | 20 | 0 | 0 |
![]() Mushroom |
0 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 25 | 30 | 85 | 95 |
![]() Mega Mushroom |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 15 | 5 |
![]() Bullet Bill |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
![]() Blooper |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
![]() Lightning |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
![]() Super Horn |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
![]() Coin |
85 | 40 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Drivers controlled by players, subsequent item boxes | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Item | 1st place | 2nd place | 3rd place | 4th place | 5th place | 6th place | 7th place | 8th place |
![]() Banana |
35 | 12 | 20 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
![]() Green Shell |
20 | 15 | 20 | 18 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
![]() Red Shell |
0 | 48 | 20 | 20 | 25 | 17 | 0 | 0 |
![]() Spiny Shell |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 0 |
![]() Bob-omb |
1 | 3 | 10 | 15 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 0 |
![]() Mushroom |
5 | 12 | 25 | 29 | 20 | 25 | 30 | 21 |
![]() Mega Mushroom |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 30 | 40 | 30 |
![]() Bullet Bill |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 25 | 40 |
![]() Blooper |
0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
![]() Lightning |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
![]() Super Horn |
4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
![]() Coin |
35 | 10 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Special Items | ||||||||
![]() Triple Bananas |
20 | 15 | 35 | 30 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
![]() Giant Banana |
20 | 15 | 35 | 30 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
![]() Triple Green Shells |
0 | 30 | 20 | 25 | 35 | 15 | 0 | 0 |
![]() Bowser's Shell |
0 | 0 | 15 | 35 | 40 | 30 | 30 | 0 |
![]() Double Bob-ombs |
0 | 30 | 20 | 25 | 35 | 15 | 0 | 0 |
![]() Triple Mushrooms |
0 | 0 | 15 | 35 | 40 | 30 | 30 | 0 |
![]() Fire Flower |
0 | 30 | 20 | 25 | 35 | 15 | 0 | 0 |
![]() Boomerang Flower |
0 | 30 | 20 | 25 | 35 | 15 | 0 | 0 |
![]() Ice Flower |
0 | 30 | 20 | 25 | 35 | 15 | 0 | 0 |
![]() Heart |
0 | 0 | 15 | 35 | 40 | 30 | 30 | 0 |
![]() Yoshi's Egg |
0 | 30 | 20 | 25 | 35 | 15 | 0 | 0 |
![]() Birdo's Egg |
0 | 30 | 20 | 25 | 35 | 15 | 0 | 0 |
![]() Bubble |
0 | 0 | 15 | 35 | 40 | 30 | 30 | 0 |
![]() Banana Barrels |
0 | 0 | 15 | 35 | 40 | 30 | 30 | 0 |
![]() Mushroom Cannon |
0 | 0 | 15 | 35 | 40 | 30 | 30 | 0 |
![]() Lucky Seven |
0 | 0 | 15 | 35 | 40 | 30 | 30 | 0 |
![]() Coin Box |
20 | 15 | 35 | 30 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
![]() Dash Ring |
0 | 0 | 15 | 35 | 40 | 30 | 30 | 0 |
![]() Bob-omb Cannon |
0 | 0 | 15 | 35 | 40 | 30 | 30 | 0 |
![]() Hammer |
0 | 30 | 20 | 25 | 35 | 15 | 0 | 0 |
Frenzy
The following tables are for situations where Frenzy mode is activated. Boosted probabilities from driver skill levels or gliders are not included. If the special item has a probability to be obtained, the percentages of the other items will be scaled down such that the sum of the percentages will be unity.
Drivers controlled by players, 1st lap/section | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Item | 1st place | 2nd place | 3rd place | 4th place | 5th place | 6th place | 7th place | 8th place |
Activating Frenzy | 5 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 13 | 15 | 18 | 22 |
Regular Items | ||||||||
![]() Banana |
30 | 25 | 35 | 15 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
![]() Green Shell |
10 | 30 | 25 | 30 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
![]() Red Shell |
0 | 15 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 22 | 27 | 0 |
![]() Spiny Shell |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 0 |
![]() Bob-omb |
0 | 10 | 25 | 25 | 30 | 15 | 0 | 0 |
![]() Mushroom |
0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 22 | 20 | 35 | 40 |
![]() Mega Mushroom |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 20 | 20 | 40 |
![]() Bullet Bill |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 10 |
![]() Blooper |
0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 18 | 18 | 0 | 0 |
![]() Lightning |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 10 |
![]() Super Horn |
10 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
![]() Coin |
50 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Special Items | ||||||||
![]() Triple Bananas |
20 | 20 | 33.333 | 33.333 | 33.333 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
![]() Giant Banana |
20 | 20 | 33.333 | 33.333 | 33.333 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
![]() Triple Green Shells |
0 | 20 | 33.333 | 33.333 | 33.333 | 20 | 0 | 0 |
![]() Bowser's Shell |
0 | 0 | 20 | 33.333 | 33.333 | 33.333 | 33.333 | 0 |
![]() Double Bob-ombs |
0 | 20 | 33.333 | 33.333 | 33.333 | 20 | 0 | 0 |
![]() Triple Mushrooms |
0 | 0 | 20 | 33.333 | 33.333 | 33.333 | 33.333 | 0 |
![]() Fire Flower |
0 | 20 | 33.333 | 33.333 | 33.333 | 20 | 0 | 0 |
![]() Boomerang Flower |
0 | 20 | 33.333 | 33.333 | 33.333 | 20 | 0 | 0 |
![]() Ice Flower |
0 | 20 | 33.333 | 33.333 | 33.333 | 20 | 0 | 0 |
![]() Heart |
0 | 0 | 20 | 33.333 | 33.333 | 33.333 | 33.333 | 0 |
![]() Yoshi's Egg |
0 | 20 | 33.333 | 33.333 | 33.333 | 20 | 0 | 0 |
![]() Birdo's Egg |
0 | 20 | 33.333 | 33.333 | 33.333 | 20 | 0 | 0 |
![]() Bubble |
0 | 0 | 20 | 33.333 | 33.333 | 33.333 | 33.333 | 0 |
![]() Banana Barrels |
0 | 0 | 20 | 33.333 | 33.333 | 33.333 | 33.333 | 0 |
![]() Mushroom Cannon |
0 | 0 | 20 | 33.333 | 33.333 | 33.333 | 33.333 | 0 |
![]() Lucky Seven |
0 | 0 | 20 | 33.333 | 33.333 | 33.333 | 33.333 | 0 |
![]() Coin Box |
20 | 20 | 33.333 | 33.333 | 33.333 | 33.333 | 0 | 0 |
![]() Dash Ring |
0 | 0 | 20 | 33.333 | 33.333 | 33.333 | 33.333 | 0 |
![]() Bob-omb Cannon |
0 | 0 | 20 | 33.333 | 33.333 | 33.333 | 33.333 | 0 |
![]() Hammer |
0 | 20 | 33.333 | 33.333 | 33.333 | 20 | 0 | 0 |
Drivers controlled by players, 2nd lap/section or 3rd section | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Item | 1st place | 2nd place | 3rd place | 4th place | 5th place | 6th place | 7th place | 8th place |
Activating Frenzy | 6 | 7 | 11 | 12 | 18 | 22 | 29 | 41 |
Regular Items | ||||||||
![]() Banana |
30 | 25 | 35 | 15 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
![]() Green Shell |
10 | 30 | 25 | 30 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
![]() Red Shell |
0 | 15 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 22 | 27 | 0 |
![]() Spiny Shell |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 0 |
![]() Bob-omb |
0 | 10 | 25 | 25 | 30 | 15 | 0 | 0 |
![]() Mushroom |
0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 22 | 20 | 35 | 40 |
![]() Mega Mushroom |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 20 | 20 | 40 |
![]() Bullet Bill |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 10 |
![]() Blooper |
0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 18 | 18 | 0 | 0 |
![]() Lightning |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 10 |
![]() Super Horn |
10 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
![]() Coin |
50 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Special Items | ||||||||
![]() Triple Bananas |
20 | 33.333 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
![]() Giant Banana |
20 | 33.333 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
![]() Triple Green Shells |
0 | 33.333 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 33.333 | 0 | 0 |
![]() Bowser's Shell |
0 | 0 | 33.333 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 0 |
![]() Double Bob-ombs |
0 | 33.333 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 33.333 | 0 | 0 |
![]() Triple Mushrooms |
0 | 0 | 33.333 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 0 |
![]() Fire Flower |
0 | 33.333 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 33.333 | 0 | 0 |
![]() Boomerang Flower |
0 | 33.333 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 33.333 | 0 | 0 |
![]() Ice Flower |
0 | 33.333 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 33.333 | 0 | 0 |
![]() Heart |
0 | 0 | 33.333 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 0 |
![]() Yoshi's Egg |
0 | 33.333 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 33.333 | 0 | 0 |
![]() Birdo's Egg |
0 | 33.333 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 33.333 | 0 | 0 |
![]() Bubble |
0 | 0 | 33.333 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 0 |
![]() Banana Barrels |
0 | 0 | 33.333 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 0 |
![]() Mushroom Cannon |
0 | 0 | 33.333 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 0 |
![]() Lucky Seven |
0 | 0 | 33.333 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 0 |
![]() Coin Box |
20 | 33.333 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 0 |
![]() Dash Ring |
0 | 0 | 33.333 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 0 |
![]() Bob-omb Cannon |
0 | 0 | 33.333 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 0 |
![]() Hammer |
0 | 33.333 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 33.333 | 0 | 0 |
Multiplayer races
It has been requested that this section be rewritten and expanded to include more information.