User talk:Midioca

Regarding my last edit on Lost and Pound

Submitted without writing in edit summary without thinking but if the team of 3 each picks a different hole the first two rounds, the solo player only has a 25% chance to escape not being hit per round and will likely get to round 3 with one hit point left.

I also figured it’s a 1 vs 3 minigame which is designed to be unbalanced anyways so no need to note. Remembered Old Buddy 10:43, October 29, 2024 (EDT)

Oh, thank you, I was wondering why you didn’t include an edit summary. Sooo:

• Yep, the odds are exactly how you describe them: If the team picks different inputs within each round, they'd have to hit a 3 in 4 three times in a row to eliminate the solo player. Their chances of doing so are (3/4)³ = (27/64) ≈ 42.19%.
  
  If the team players choose the same target within each round, the odds turn in their favor though: If the solo player would get hit in one round they'd lose the game since they're hit thrice instantly. To win, the solo player has to not get hit for 3 rounds with the probability of not getting hit being 3/4 each round.
  So the win probability of the solo player is (3/4)³ = (27/64) ≈ 42.19% making the win probability for the team players 1-(27/64) = (37/64) ≈ 58.81%.
  
  I know it's counterintuitive at first so here's another way of phrasing it:
  Even though the probability of hitting the solo player in one round is lager with different picks (3/4) than with the same pick (1/4), in the first scenario each round has to be right, while in the second scenario only one right guess is enough to win for the team players.
  
  
• Interesting! I didn't know 1 vs. 3 minigames weren't supposed to be 50%|50%! Are they supposed to be 25%|75%?
  
  
• If you think this fact doesn't fit in the gameplay section or on the page that's fine by me :)
  I just thought people who visit a wiki page for a minigame might be interested in little facts like that. I was inspired by a similar sentance on Look Away.

Midioca (talk) 18:23, October 29, 2024 (EDT)