User talk:Midioca: Difference between revisions
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(Created page with "==Regarding my last edit on Lost and Pound== Submitted without writing in edit summary without thinking but if the team of 3 each picks a different hole the first two rounds, the solo player only has a 25% chance to escape not being hit per round and will likely get to round 3 with one hit point left. I also figured it’s a 1 vs 3 minigame which is designed to be unbalanced anyways so no need to note. ~~~~") |
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I also figured it’s a 1 vs 3 minigame which is designed to be unbalanced anyways so no need to note. {{User:Remembered Old Buddy/sig}} 10:43, October 29, 2024 (EDT) | I also figured it’s a 1 vs 3 minigame which is designed to be unbalanced anyways so no need to note. {{User:Remembered Old Buddy/sig}} 10:43, October 29, 2024 (EDT) | ||
:Oh, thank you, I was wondering why you didn’t include an edit summary. Sooo: | |||
:*Yep, the odds are exactly how you describe them: If the team picks different inputs within each round, they'd have to hit a 3 in 4 three times in a row to eliminate the solo player. Their chances of doing so are (3/4)<sup>3</sup> = (27/64) ≈ 42.19%.<br><br>If the team players choose the same target within each round, the odds turn in their favor though: If the solo player would get hit in one round they'd lose the game since they're hit thrice instantly. To win, the solo player has to not get hit for 3 rounds with the probability of not getting hit being 3/4 each round.<br>So the win probability of the solo player is (3/4)<sup>3</sup> = (27/64) ≈ 42.19% making the win probability for the team players 1-(27/64) = (37/64) ≈ 58.81%.<br><br>I know it's counterintuitive at first so here's another way of phrasing it:<br>Even though the probability of hitting the solo player in one round is lager with different picks (3/4) than with the same pick (1/4), in the first scenario each round has to be right, while in the second scenario only one right guess is enough to win for the team players.<br><br> | |||
:*Interesting! I didn't know 1 vs. 3 minigames weren't supposed to be 50%|50%! Are they supposed to be 25%|75%?<br><br> | |||
:*If you think this fact doesn't fit in the gameplay section or on the page that's fine by me :)<br>I just thought people who visit a wiki page for a minigame might be interested in little facts like that. I was inspired by a similar sentance on [[Look Away]]. | |||
:[[User:Midioca|Midioca]] ([[User talk:Midioca|talk]]) 18:23, October 29, 2024 (EDT) | |||
Revision as of 17:23, October 29, 2024
Regarding my last edit on Lost and Pound
Submitted without writing in edit summary without thinking but if the team of 3 each picks a different hole the first two rounds, the solo player only has a 25% chance to escape not being hit per round and will likely get to round 3 with one hit point left.
I also figured it’s a 1 vs 3 minigame which is designed to be unbalanced anyways so no need to note. 
Remembered Old Buddy
10:43, October 29, 2024 (EDT)
- Oh, thank you, I was wondering why you didn’t include an edit summary. Sooo:
- Yep, the odds are exactly how you describe them: If the team picks different inputs within each round, they'd have to hit a 3 in 4 three times in a row to eliminate the solo player. Their chances of doing so are (3/4)3 = (27/64) ≈ 42.19%.
If the team players choose the same target within each round, the odds turn in their favor though: If the solo player would get hit in one round they'd lose the game since they're hit thrice instantly. To win, the solo player has to not get hit for 3 rounds with the probability of not getting hit being 3/4 each round.
So the win probability of the solo player is (3/4)3 = (27/64) ≈ 42.19% making the win probability for the team players 1-(27/64) = (37/64) ≈ 58.81%.
I know it's counterintuitive at first so here's another way of phrasing it:
Even though the probability of hitting the solo player in one round is lager with different picks (3/4) than with the same pick (1/4), in the first scenario each round has to be right, while in the second scenario only one right guess is enough to win for the team players. - Interesting! I didn't know 1 vs. 3 minigames weren't supposed to be 50%|50%! Are they supposed to be 25%|75%?
- If you think this fact doesn't fit in the gameplay section or on the page that's fine by me :)
I just thought people who visit a wiki page for a minigame might be interested in little facts like that. I was inspired by a similar sentance on Look Away.
- Yep, the odds are exactly how you describe them: If the team picks different inputs within each round, they'd have to hit a 3 in 4 three times in a row to eliminate the solo player. Their chances of doing so are (3/4)3 = (27/64) ≈ 42.19%.
- Midioca (talk) 18:23, October 29, 2024 (EDT)
